OPEC+ Explained

Who is in OPEC+

OPEC itself now has 11 members. The wider OPEC+ group was formed under the Declaration of Cooperation in December 2016, when OPEC and Russia agreed joint cuts to end the 2014–2016 price collapse. Iran, Libya and Venezuela are OPEC members but are exempt from quotas because of sanctions or civil conflict.

How OPEC+ quotas work

Each participating country has a required production level for crude oil, measured in barrels per day. These levels are set against a reference baseline, usually a country's estimated capacity or an earlier output level. When the group "cuts", it lowers the required levels. When it "unwinds" a cut, it raises them step by step.

Since 2023 the quota system has had three layers:

• The group-wide cut of 2 million b/d agreed in October 2022. It covers most members and stays in place until the end of 2026.
• The first voluntary cut of about 1.65 million b/d, announced in April 2023 by a smaller group of members. This was unwound from October 2025 and fully restored with a 188,000 b/d increase for September 2026, agreed on 2 August 2026.
• The second voluntary cut of 2.2 million b/d from November 2023, which was unwound between April and September 2025.

Production decisions are taken by the members that made the voluntary cuts. Since the UAE's exit these are seven countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. They meet online once a month. Full ministerial meetings of all 21 countries are rarer and set the longer-term framework, including the baselines for 2027.

Current OPEC+ policy (October 2026)

On 4 October 2026 the seven countries agreed to keep their September 2026 required production levels for November, the second monthly pause after the same decision for October on 4 September. The next meeting is set for 1 November 2026. Before deciding how to remove the remaining 2 million b/d cut, the group has said it needs to assess members' sustainable capacity and agree new baselines for 2027.

Quotas versus real output in 2026

In 2026 the targets say less than usual about actual supply. After US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was largely halted. Gulf producers could not export, so they had to shut in wells regardless of their quotas. The EIA estimates that Middle East shut-ins peaked at 10.9 million b/d in May and averaged 4.8 million b/d in September 2026. Saudi Arabia alone was producing about 1.7 million b/d below its February level in September.

The EIA's figures show the effect on the group's output. OPEC+ crude production averaged 33.3 million b/d in 2025 and is forecast at 29.5 million b/d in 2026, before recovering to 33.4 million b/d in 2027. When an analyst says OPEC+ "raised output" in 2026, it usually means it raised targets on paper, not barrels delivered to the market.

Compliance and compensation

Compliance compares each country's actual output with its required level. OPEC publishes estimates based on "secondary sources" (agencies such as Argus, Platts and the EIA) in its Monthly Oil Market Report. Countries that overproduce are expected to submit compensation schedules, cutting below target later to make up for excess barrels. Iraq and Kazakhstan have been the most frequent over-producers in recent years. Kazakhstan's output depends heavily on Chevron-led projects such as Tengiz, which the government does not fully control.

Spare capacity: the real source of OPEC+ power

Spare capacity is production that can be started within about 90 days and sustained. Before the war it was concentrated in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, all of which export through Hormuz. The EIA estimates OPEC surplus capacity at 3.0–3.9 million b/d during 2025. In the second and third quarters of 2026 it fell to almost zero in the EIA's tables, because the idle Gulf capacity cannot reach the market while the strait is blocked and is counted as disrupted rather than spare. The IEA estimated that effective spare capacity fell to just 320,000 b/d in March 2026, the lowest level on record.

This explains the price behaviour of 2026. With no usable spare capacity, the market could only balance through inventories, emergency stock releases and lower demand, which is why Brent spot prices reached $130.80 on 15 September 2026 (EIA).

How OPEC+ affects oil prices

OPEC+ moves prices in three ways. First, through the barrels themselves: a credible cut tightens the balance and drains inventories. Second, through signalling: meeting statements, the Saudi energy minister's comments and Saudi Aramco's monthly official selling prices tell traders how Riyadh sees demand. Third, through spare capacity, which caps how far prices can rise during an outage. Read with the Brent price and the shape of the Brent futures curve, a pause or a cut usually shows up first in the spread between the first two futures months.

The UAE's exit adds a new element. Abu Dhabi has said it wants to raise capacity from about 3.4 million b/d to 5 million b/d by 2027 and will no longer be bound by a quota. Once Gulf exports normalise, that capacity could compete directly with Saudi barrels. For the other drivers that interact with OPEC+ policy, see what moves oil prices.