Gasoline Prices and Crude Oil
Crude oil makes up about half of what Americans pay for gasoline: 51.4% in 2025, when regular averaged $3.10 a gallon, according to the EIA. The rest is refining (14.3%), distribution and marketing (17.8%) and taxes (16.6%). Each $1 change in the price of a barrel shifts the crude cost of a gallon by about 2.4 cents. On 5 October 2026 US regular gasoline averaged $4.354, up $1.23 from a year earlier, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
UGA holds NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures. It tracks the direction of wholesale gasoline, not the pump price.
What makes up the price of a gallon
| Component | 2016–2025 average | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Crude oil | 51.7% | 51.4% |
| Refining costs and profits | 15.0% | 14.3% |
| Distribution and marketing | 15.9% | 17.8% |
| Federal and state taxes | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| Average retail price | $2.89 | $3.10 |
Source: EIA, Gasoline explained: factors affecting gasoline prices. Federal tax is 18.4 cents a gallon (18.3 cents excise plus a 0.1-cent underground storage tank fee); state taxes and fees averaged 33.55 cents a gallon in January 2026.
Step 1: crude oil
US refiners pay prices linked to WTI for domestic crude and to Brent for imported and coastal barrels. Since a barrel holds 42 gallons, the crude cost per gallon is the barrel price divided by 42: $1.67 at $70 and $2.52 at $106. Use the calculator below, or see oil price per gallon for more detail.
This is the cost of crude only. Add refining, distribution and taxes to estimate a pump price.
Step 2: RBOB futures and the wholesale price
The wholesale benchmark for US gasoline is the NYMEX RBOB contract (reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending). It covers 42,000 gallons, equal to 1,000 barrels, delivered in New York Harbor, and is quoted in dollars per gallon. RBOB is a blendstock: ethanol is added at the terminal to make the finished E10 sold at most US stations. Regional spot prices, such as Gulf Coast or Los Angeles gasoline, trade at differentials to the futures price.
Step 3: the gasoline crack spread
The difference between the wholesale gasoline price per barrel and the crude price is the gasoline crack spread, a rough measure of refining margins. Using EIA monthly spot prices for New York Harbor conventional gasoline:
| Period | NYH gasoline ($/gal) | NYH gasoline ($/bbl) | WTI ($/bbl) | Crack spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 average | $2.011 | $84.46 | $65.39 | $19.07 |
| Feb 2026 | $2.081 | $87.40 | $64.51 | $22.89 |
| May 2026 | $3.564 | $149.69 | $102.13 | $47.56 |
| Jun 2026 | $3.037 | $127.55 | $84.81 | $42.74 |
| Sep 2026 | $3.434 | $144.23 | $97.31 | $46.92 |
Source: EIA spot prices, New York Harbor conventional regular gasoline and Cushing WTI, monthly averages; 2025 gasoline average is the mean of the 12 monthly values. Crack spread = gasoline × 42 − WTI.
In 2026 the gasoline crack more than doubled. Losses of refining capacity in the Middle East and Russia, which cut global capacity by about 2 million barrels per day according to Reuters columnist Ron Bousso, and strong demand for diesel and jet fuel made all refined products scarce. When cracks widen, pump prices rise faster than crude.
Step 4: distribution, retail margins and taxes
From the terminal, gasoline is trucked to stations. Distribution and marketing costs include transport, station operation, credit card fees and the retailer's margin. This share swings the most from week to week, because retail prices adjust with a lag: margins shrink when wholesale prices rise quickly and widen when they fall. Taxes in the US are fixed amounts per gallon, so they do not rise with crude. That is why crude's share of the pump price grows when oil is expensive. In Europe, fuel duties and VAT make up a much larger share; the EU weighted average price of Euro-super 95 was €2.006 per litre on 5 October 2026, according to the European Commission's Weekly Oil Bulletin.
Gasoline prices in 2026
EIA weekly data show how quickly pump prices reacted to the war with Iran. Regular gasoline averaged $2.937 a gallon on 23 February 2026, before the conflict began on 28 February. It reached $3.502 on 9 March, $4.120 on 6 April and a 2026 high of $4.500 on 11 May. It eased to $3.777 by 6 July as crude fell, then climbed again to $4.478 on 21 September as Brent returned above $110. The record remains $5.006 in the week of 13 June 2022.
Regional differences are large. On 5 October 2026 the West Coast averaged $5.727 and the Gulf Coast $3.911, reflecting California's fuel specifications and taxes and the Gulf Coast's proximity to refineries. The EIA's October 2026 STEO puts September's average at $4.35 and forecasts $3.91 for 2026 as a whole and about $3.56 for 2027.
Why pump prices rise fast and fall slowly
Economists call this pattern "rockets and feathers". Retailers raise prices quickly when their replacement cost jumps, but competition takes longer to push prices down when costs fall, because drivers search less when prices are falling and stations try to rebuild margins. The full explanation, with the evidence and 2026 examples, is on why gas prices lag oil.
Seasonal patterns
US gasoline is usually more expensive in spring and summer. Refineries carry out maintenance in early spring, the switch to lower-volatility summer-grade gasoline raises costs, and demand peaks in the driving season from Memorial Day to Labor Day. Winter-grade gasoline is cheaper to make. Hurricane season can disrupt Gulf Coast refineries from June to November.
Gasoline price and crude oil FAQ
How much of the gasoline price is crude oil?
According to the EIA, crude oil made up 51.4% of the US retail price of regular gasoline in 2025, when the average was $3.10 a gallon. Refining accounted for 14.3%, distribution and marketing 17.8% and taxes 16.6%. Crude's share rises when oil prices are high.
How much does a $10 rise in oil add to gasoline?
A barrel holds 42 gallons, so a $10 per barrel rise in crude adds about 24 cents to the cost of a gallon of gasoline, if refining margins stay the same. The pump price usually reflects this within one to several weeks. Changes in the crack spread can make the effect larger or smaller.
What is RBOB gasoline?
RBOB stands for reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending. It is the wholesale gasoline traded in NYMEX futures, 42,000 gallons per contract, delivered in New York Harbor. Ethanol is blended into it at the terminal to make the finished gasoline sold at the pump.
Why did gas prices rise so much in 2026?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz from 28 February 2026 sent crude oil sharply higher, and refinery losses in the Middle East and Russia made refined products scarce. US regular gasoline rose from $2.94 a gallon in late February to $4.50 in May 2026, according to EIA weekly data.
What is the federal gas tax?
The federal tax on gasoline is 18.4 cents per gallon: an 18.3-cent excise tax plus a 0.1-cent Leaking Underground Storage Tank fee. State taxes and fees add an average of 33.55 cents a gallon as of January 2026, according to the EIA, with wide variation between states.
Related pages
Why Gas Prices Lag Oil
Why pump prices react slowly to falling oil: rockets and feathers, inventory costs, retail margins, taxes and the typical lag between crude and the pump.
Price Per Gallon
Today's crude oil price per US gallon for Brent and WTI, the barrel-to-gallon maths, and how crude cost per gallon compares with the pump price.
Crack Spread
What the crack spread is, how the 3-2-1 crack is calculated, why refining margins matter for crude demand, and how to follow gasoline and diesel cracks.
Diesel Price
What drives diesel prices: crude costs, distillate cracks, refinery capacity, Russian product sanctions and freight demand, with US and EU price data.