Oil Price Forecast 2026–2027

Why forecasts are so far apart

The range of forecasts reflects one question: how quickly oil flows from the Persian Gulf return to normal. Since the war involving Iran began in March 2026, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, Gulf producers have shut in output and global inventories have fallen. The EIA estimates that crude production shut-ins averaged 4.8 million barrels per day in September 2026, down from a peak of 10.9 million b/d in May, and the IEA reports that observed global inventories fell by 507 million barrels between February and August.

• Higher forecasts (EIA's $105 for 4Q26, Morgan Stanley's $100) assume constrained flows into early 2027 and continued inventory draws.
• Lower forecasts (JPMorgan's $64 for 2027) assume the conflict ends and Gulf supply returns, turning a deficit into a large surplus. The IEA's figures show how big that swing could be: its September report projects 2026 supply down 5.7 mb/d and a rebound of 8 mb/d in 2027.

The EIA view in detail

The EIA's October 2026 STEO, released on 6 October, raised its 2026 Brent average to $96 from $91 a month earlier and its 2027 average to $84 from $74. It reported that Brent spot averaged $114 in September, up $23 from August. Key assumptions:

• Shut-ins average 4.5 million b/d in 4Q26, with Middle East flows constrained through the quarter.
• Convoys through Hormuz, bypass pipelines, ship-to-ship transfers and new UAE bypass capacity in 2027 gradually raise exports; most Middle East production returns to pre-conflict levels by the end of 2Q27.
• Global liquid fuels production falls to 101.1 million b/d in 2026 and rebounds to 109.6 million b/d in 2027, against consumption of 102.4 and 104.6 million b/d.
• The forecast includes the 40-million-barrel US Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange announced on 29 September, but not the G7 announcement of 2 October or later events.

The EIA highlighted attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which carried more than 5 million b/d of exports to Yanbu before the attacks, as a source of continued volatility.

Bank forecasts

Goldman Sachs (12 October 2026)

Goldman raised its December 2026 Brent forecast to $90 from $85 and kept its 2027 average at $80, with December WTI at $81. It cited low inventories and demand for restocking and hedging, while noting that Gulf crude exports had largely returned to pre-war levels through pipelines and other routes. It sees Brent at $125 in December if infrastructure is damaged or shipping attacks intensify, and in the low $70s through 2027 if Middle East output recovers faster.

Morgan Stanley (24 August 2026)

Morgan Stanley raised its Brent path to $90 in Q3 2026, $100 in Q4 2026, $95 in Q1 2027 and $90 in Q2 2027, from $75 previously, saying the Middle East supply recovery "now takes well into 2027".

JPMorgan (June and September 2026)

JPMorgan's June revision put Brent at $86 in Q3 and $80 in Q4 2026 and $64 on average in 2027, citing weaker demand and slower inventory draws. Its 11 September Oil Market Weekly kept $64 as the outcome if the conflict ends, but estimated about $87 for 2027 if Hormuz stays constrained, with each additional month of disruption adding roughly $7–8.

HSBC (8 September 2026)

HSBC forecast Brent at $90 for 2026 and $85 for 2027, describing the market as "persistently impaired" by disruption through Hormuz and not returning to balance until around mid-2027.

What the IEA and OPEC say

Neither the IEA nor OPEC publishes a price forecast, but their supply and demand outlooks move prices. The IEA's September 2026 Oil Market Report forecast world demand falling by 2.5 mb/d in 2026 because of high prices and disruption, then recovering by 2.6 mb/d in 2027. It noted ICE Brent near $105 at the time of writing and Dated Brent at $113.48 on 9 September. OPEC's October report, published on 13 October 2026, cut its 2026 demand growth estimate to 0.2 mb/d and raised 2027 growth to about 2.6 mb/d. OPEC's demand figures have been consistently higher than the IEA's; see OPEC+ explained for how the group responds.

Risks to every forecast

• Upside: attacks on export infrastructure or tankers, a longer closure of Hormuz, low inventories ahead of winter, extreme diesel tightness (the EIA put US East Coast distillate stocks 32% below the five-year average in September).
• Downside: a durable US-Iran agreement, faster recovery of Gulf output, demand losses from high prices and slower growth, large emergency stock releases, and OPEC+ policy if a 2027 surplus emerges.
• Other factors: Russia-Ukraine energy talks, US hurricane season, the US dollar and Chinese demand.

For daily developments, see oil price news; for what has already happened this year, see oil price history 2026; and for 2030 and beyond, see the long-term oil price outlook.