Oil Price Seasonality
Oil prices have a mild seasonal pattern, but it is weak compared with the effect of supply shocks and the economy. From 2000 to 2025, Brent's monthly average price rose in January to February in about three years out of four, and fell from October to December in most years. November was the weakest month, with an average change of −3.3%. Physical demand is seasonal (summer driving, winter heating, refinery maintenance), but a single event such as the 2026 Gulf disruption can overwhelm any calendar effect.
Average change in the oil price by month
The table shows how the monthly average Brent spot price changed compared with the previous month's average, for each calendar month from 2000 to 2025 (26 observations per month). The median is less affected by extreme years such as 2008 and 2020 than the mean.
| Month | Brent mean | Brent median | Brent up (years of 26) | WTI mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.0% | +3.2% | 20 (77%) | +2.5% |
| February | +3.5% | +3.6% | 19 (73%) | +1.9% |
| March | +2.2% | +3.2% | 16 (62%) | +3.1% |
| April | +0.1% | +5.0% | 16 (62%) | +0.3% |
| May | +4.4% | +1.0% | 15 (58%) | +4.4% |
| June | +2.7% | +0.5% | 14 (54%) | +3.1% |
| July | +1.2% | +2.6% | 16 (62%) | +1.0% |
| August | +0.1% | +2.0% | 14 (54%) | −0.5% |
| September | −0.3% | +0.7% | 15 (58%) | −0.5% |
| October | −0.9% | −1.4% | 12 (46%) | −0.4% |
| November | −3.3% | −2.2% | 9 (35%) | −3.1% |
| December | −2.0% | −1.1% | 11 (42%) | −2.8% |
Method: for each year from 2000 to 2025, percentage change of the month's average spot price against the previous month's average, using the EIA Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (RBRTE) and Cushing WTI Spot Price FOB (RWTC) monthly series. January compares with the previous December. "Up" counts years with a positive change. Averages of monthly prices smooth daily volatility, so these are not trading returns.
What the numbers show
- A first-half bias. From January to July, the median change was positive in every month for Brent. Refiners build stocks ahead of summer, and markets price in rising demand.
- A weak fourth quarter. October, November and December had negative means and medians. November rose in only 9 of 26 years. Demand slows after the summer, and producers' hedging and year-end positioning have also played a role.
- Means and medians differ. April's median was +5.0% but its mean only +0.1%, because of large falls in a few years, such as April 2020. May's mean of +4.4% is boosted by the rebound in May 2020. One or two crisis years can dominate a 26-year average.
- The effect is small. A typical monthly move in oil is several times larger than the seasonal average. Seasonality is a tilt, not a forecast.
The physical drivers behind the pattern
| Period | Driver | Typical effect |
|---|---|---|
| February–May | Spring refinery maintenance, then switch to summer-grade gasoline | Crude demand dips while refiners are offline, then rises; gasoline cracks strengthen |
| Late May–early September | US driving season (Memorial Day to Labor Day) | Gasoline demand peaks; US crude stocks usually draw |
| June–August | Middle East summer crude burning for power | Saudi Arabia and Iraq consume more crude at home, reducing exports |
| 1 June–30 November (peak August–October) | Atlantic hurricane season | Risk to US Gulf Coast production and refining; can raise product prices more than crude |
| September–November | Autumn refinery maintenance | Lower crude runs; US crude stocks often build |
| November–March | Northern hemisphere winter | Heating oil and diesel demand rises; distillate stocks draw |
Hurricane season dates: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. US gasoline demand averaged 8.62 million b/d in the first quarter of 2025 and 9.14 million b/d in the third quarter, according to the EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Seasonality in refined products is stronger
Seasonal patterns are clearer in fuels than in crude. Gasoline prices and the gasoline crack spread tend to rise in spring before the driving season, and US summer-grade gasoline is more expensive to make. Heating oil and diesel are typically strongest in winter, especially when distillate stocks are low. In the EIA's October 2026 outlook, East Coast distillate stocks were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September, with prices for heating oil up more than 30% from the previous winter. See gasoline prices and heating oil prices.
2026: when events overwhelm the calendar
The 2026 pattern shows the limits of seasonality. Brent's monthly average spot price rose 45% in March, when the average March change since 2000 is 2%, as the Strait of Hormuz disruption began. It fell 20% in June after a memorandum reopened shipping, then rose 25% in September after attacks on Saudi export infrastructure, a month that usually changes little. These moves, calculated from EIA monthly data, are ten times the size of any seasonal average. Month-by-month detail is on oil prices in 2026.
How to use seasonality
- As context, not a signal. Ask whether a move is normal for the time of year, for example a US crude stock draw in July.
- Compare with the five-year average. The EIA reports inventories against the five-year seasonal range in its weekly report. A build in October is normal; a build in July is not.
- Watch the spreads. Seasonal patterns often show up more clearly in calendar spreads and crack spreads than in the outright price. See contango and backwardation.
- Check long-run charts. The oil price chart and the oil price history tables show how often big shocks have broken the pattern.
Oil price seasonality FAQ
What is the best month for oil prices?
From 2000 to 2025, February had the highest median rise in Brent's monthly average price (+3.6%), and January rose most often, in 20 of 26 years, according to our calculations from EIA data. May had the highest mean (+4.4%), but that figure is inflated by the rebound after the 2020 crash.
Do oil prices fall in winter?
Crude prices have tended to soften in late autumn. From 2000 to 2025 Brent's monthly average fell in November in 17 of 26 years, and December was also weak on average. Heating oil and diesel can still be strong in winter, especially when distillate inventories are low, as in 2026.
Why do gas prices rise in summer?
US gasoline demand peaks during the driving season from Memorial Day to Labor Day, and summer-grade gasoline, which evaporates less, costs more to produce. Refiners also finish spring maintenance before summer. EIA data show US gasoline demand averaged 9.14 million b/d in the third quarter of 2025 versus 8.62 million b/d in the first.
Can you trade oil seasonality?
Seasonal averages are small compared with normal monthly volatility, and a single shock can wipe them out, as in March and September 2026. Professional traders use seasonality mainly in spreads, such as gasoline cracks or winter heating oil spreads, rather than in outright crude prices. Trading oil carries a high risk of loss.
Related pages
Oil Price History
Crude oil price history: Brent and WTI annual average prices 2000-2025, the spread by year, and the events behind every spike and crash.
Crude Oil Price Chart
Live crude oil price chart with Brent and WTI, from 1-minute to monthly timeframes. Includes indicators, long-term performance and a guide to reading oil charts.
Gasoline Price
How crude oil becomes the gasoline price: RBOB futures, the crack spread, taxes and distribution, and why pump prices rise fast and fall slowly.
Heating Oil Price
Heating oil and ULSD prices explained: NYMEX HO futures, the diesel crack, winter demand and why distillates can rise faster than crude.