Canada Oil Production and Exports

Production: a record every year since 2020

Canadian output has set a new annual record every year since 2020, according to the CER. It averaged 5.14 million b/d in 2024 and 5.35 million b/d in 2025, peaking at 5.64 million b/d in December 2025. Alberta added 182,000 b/d in 2025, mostly non-upgraded bitumen, as producers filled the new export capacity from the Trans Mountain expansion.

By province, Alberta produced 83.8% of the 2025 total, Saskatchewan 8.2%, Newfoundland and Labrador (offshore) 4.5% and British Columbia 2.8%. The EIA, which counts crude and lease condensate only, puts Canada's 2025 output at 4.96 million b/d, fourth behind the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The oil sands

About 97% of Canada's proven reserves, 166.3 of 171 billion barrels, are in the oil sands of northern Alberta, according to Natural Resources Canada. That ranks Canada third in the world for reserves, behind Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, though most of the oil is bitumen that is costly to extract. It is produced in two ways:

• In situ (mainly steam-assisted gravity drainage): steam is injected underground so the bitumen can flow to wells. Output averaged a record 1.93 million b/d over January–November 2025 and topped 2 million b/d in November, according to Alberta Energy Regulator data reported by Oil Sands Magazine.
• Mining: shallow deposits are dug up and processed. Mining output averaged about 1.75 million b/d over the same period.

Oil sands projects have high upfront costs but very slow decline rates, unlike US shale. Once built, they produce steadily for decades, which makes Canadian supply stable but slow to respond to price.

Exports and pipelines

Canada exported about 4 million b/d in 2023, nearly 80% of its output, and almost all of it went to the United States, according to the CER. EIA data show US imports from Canada of 4.06 million b/d in 2024 and 3.91 million b/d in 2025, about 62–63% of all US crude imports. Most flows south by pipeline to refineries in the US Midwest, which are built to process heavy crude, and onward to the Gulf Coast. The US oil production page explains why the US still imports heavy oil while exporting light shale crude.

The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) changed the export map. It started commercial operation on 1 May 2024 and raised the line's capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 b/d, from Edmonton to the Westridge terminal near Vancouver. For the first time Canada can ship large volumes to Asia. Trans Mountain says more than 65% of 2025 Westridge loadings went to Asia, and China has been the largest buyer.

On 2 July 2026 Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that Alberta had submitted a proposed new West Coast pipeline to the federal Major Projects Office. It would carry up to 1 million b/d of bitumen for Asian markets and seeks "national interest" status under the Building Canada Act. It has not been approved.

WCS: why Canadian oil sells at a discount

Most Canadian exports are priced as Western Canadian Select (WCS), a heavy sour blend priced at Hardisty, Alberta. WCS trades below WTI because heavy sour crude yields less gasoline and diesel, and because it must travel long distances by pipeline. Before TMX, pipeline bottlenecks sometimes pushed the discount above $40 per barrel. With more export capacity it has mostly stayed in the low-to-mid teens.

The 2026 Iran war cut supplies of Middle East sour crude, which supported heavy grades. WCS for April delivery was $12.70 below WTI on 2 March 2026, Reuters reported, narrower than in January and February. In early May the discount widened to about $16.25, which analysts linked to extreme backwardation in WTI, before narrowing to $12.40 on 3 June. To convert the price into local currency, see the oil price in Canadian dollars.

Trade policy and OPEC

Canada is not a member of OPEC or OPEC+, so its output is not subject to quotas. The main policy risk is US trade policy. Under the US tariff orders of March 2025, Canadian energy that qualified under the USMCA (CUSMA) trade agreement was exempt from 7 March 2025. Non-qualifying Canadian energy faced a 10% tariff, against 25% on other goods. Ottawa's push for new pipelines to the West Coast is partly a response to its reliance on a single customer.